Huss Valley Calculator: Crate Odds, Gem Cost & Crossing Time

Crate odds

Two crates are named on the Fandom Crates page: Celestial, and Ember & Shadow. The wiki says crates are the main way to get knife skins, that all crates are limited, and that a skin you have not unlocked goes away when the crate does. It does not give a removal date or a Gem price; the price, 750 Gems per open for both crates, comes from our own read of the in-game panel on 2026-10-12. The per-knife chances live on the knife pages, not on the Crates page, and they are what the calculator multiplies.

In the tables we adapted, the Ember & Shadow pool sums to 100% and the Celestial pool sums to 100%. A total of 100 is what a legal odds screen has to show. We also compared the numbers with the in-game odds panel on 2026-10-12: every row in both crates matched, so the rows below are marked tested.

The default result is computed when the site is built, so it is in the HTML before any script runs. Changing the crate, the knife, or the number of opens reruns the same three formulas: the chance of at least one hit in N opens is 1 − (1 − p)^N, the average wait is 1 / p, and the opens for a confidence level C are ceil( ln(1 − C) / ln(1 − p) ). Each open is treated as independent.

Tool · works without JavaScript

Crate odds calculator

Pick a crate and a knife — or every knife that shares one drop chance — and the table below answers the only three questions worth asking: how likely is it in the opens you can afford, how many opens does it take on average, and how many before you can stop calling it bad luck.

Crate Ember & Shadow Crate Celestial Crate

Knife, or any knife at one chance Solar Pheonix (1.5%) Void Sovereign (1.5%) Molten Fang (6%) Spectral Reaper (6%) Amber Sting (12.5%) Rose Quartz (12.5%) Ashsteel (30%) Copper Bite (30%) Any 1.5% knife — 2 in this crate (3%) Any 6% knife — 2 in this crate (12%) Any 12.5% knife — 2 in this crate (25%) Any 30% knife — 2 in this crate (60%) Celestial Dragon (1.5%) Glacial Crown (1.5%) Moonfang (6%) Storm Talon (6%) Tidal Shard (12.5%) Venom Thorn (12.5%) Forest Edge (30%) Iron Fang (30%) Any 1.5% knife — 2 in this crate (3%) Any 6% knife — 2 in this crate (12%) Any 12.5% knife — 2 in this crate (25%) Any 30% knife — 2 in this crate (60%)

Number of opens (N)

Gems per crate (enter what your shop shows)

Prefills with the in-game price we read (750 gems, Tested · 12 Oct 2026). Change it if your shop shows a different number.

The table below is already calculated. Changing these fields recalculates it instantly when JavaScript is on.

Showing Void Sovereign (1.5%) Ember & Shadow Crate

Default result, calculated at build time: Void Sovereign (1.5%) from the Ember & Shadow Crate, 50 opens.

Question	Answer	Gem cost
Chance of at least one in 50 opens	53.03%	37,500 Gems
Expected opens (long-run average)	66.7 opens	50,250 Gems
Opens for a 50% chance	46 opens	34,500 Gems
Opens for a 90% chance	153 opens	114,750 Gems
Opens for a 99% chance	305 opens	228,750 Gems

At least one hit in N opens is 1 − (1 − p)^N; the average wait is 1 / p; the opens for a confidence level C are ceil( ln(1 − C) / ln(1 − p) ). Here p = 1.500%. Each open is independent — nothing in this game is documented as a pity timer, and we will not pretend one exists.

Tested · 12 Oct 2026 Odds from the Huss Valley Roblox Fandom wiki (CC BY-SA); in-game panel matched on 12 Oct 2026. Roblox requires paid random items to show odds before purchase — the in-game crate screen is authoritative.

What we know about each crate, besides the odds

Gem cost

The calculator’s “gems per crate” field starts at 750 Gems, the price on both crate panels on 2026-10-12 (Robux alternatives R$399 ×1, R$1,029 ×3, R$2,799 ×10). The cost of a row is that price times the opens in the row, rounded up to a whole open. Duplicates refund Gems by rarity (Common +10, Rare +20, Epic +40, Legendary +75), which the calculator does not subtract. Change the field if your shop shows a different price; we do not store what you type.

There is a second Gem question the crate price does not answer: how many Gems a match pays, as a Runner and as a Catcher, and how many matches that average is based on. No reliable public figure exists. Competitor pages that print a per-match income without a sample size are not a source we will launder into a number. The sheet below is the shape of the test, filed empty.

Coins are the other currency. They buy consumables, whose tested pack prices (135–203 Coins for 3 charges) are on the movement page. XP per match is pending too, including a paired test with and without the X2 EXP pass so the multiplier can be checked against the pass description instead of assumed. Pass prices themselves are official and live on the update log.

Crossing time

A Runner’s win, as reported, is a count of crossings. The only number that turns that count into a plan is how long one crossing takes on the map you were just voted onto. So far one is timed: The Valley, walking, median 6.6 s from three runs on 2026-10-12. The Barn, Hometown, School Yard and every top-speed row are still pending. Walking and top speed are separate rows, because the reports describe acceleration rather than a single speed, and because abilities exist. The test we want is one crossing, no abilities, from the start line.

For maps without a tested time, type your own seconds. The crossings field starts at the reported win condition so you can see a full round, and you can change it for a single trip.

Tool · 1 of 4 maps timed in-game

Crossing time calculator

A Runner wins after 3 crossings Tested · 12 Oct 2026 crossings, so the only number that matters is how long one crossing takes on the map you are on. We have timed The Valley on foot so far; for the other maps, time a crossing yourself and type it in.

Map The ValleyThe BarnHometownSchool Yard

Crossings

Three in a row is the win condition shown on the in-game HUD.

Seconds for one crossing (your stopwatch)

Start the clock when you cross the line and stop it when you reach the far side.

19.8 s

Total run time for 3 crossings on The Valley

Measured crossing times per map. Tested rows were timed in a live server; untested rows stay pending. No figure here is estimated from a screenshot.

Map	One crossing, walking	One crossing, top speed	3 crossings, walking
The Valley	6.6 s Tested · 12 Oct 2026	Pending in-game test No test yet	19.8 s
The Barn	Pending in-game test No test yet	Pending in-game test No test yet	Pending in-game test
Hometown	Pending in-game test No test yet	Pending in-game test No test yet	Pending in-game test
School Yard	Pending in-game test No test yet	Pending in-game test No test yet	Pending in-game test

Map-by-map notes, including which map is reported as limited, are on the maps page. This calculator does not invent a safe route to subtract seconds from.

Every knife the wiki lists

Crate knives are sixteen of a longer index. The rest come from quests, a journey, events, the leaderboard, Robux, a wheel, or from owning the game, according to the wiki’s own obtainment lines. Where a page gives a chance, it is shown. Where the chance is “100%” on a knife you buy or finish a quest for, that is the wiki’s field, not a drop rate, and the crate filter is how you separate the two. No page we adapted gives a damage, range, or speed bonus for a skin. Those columns are absent, not zero.

Knife and crate odds data from the Huss Valley Roblox Fandom wiki (Knife Skins, Crates), licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0; adapted into tables by Huss Valley Guide. Our adapted tables are shared under the same license.

Show your work

Sources & check times

Reading a source is not the same as testing a game. Both dates are shown so you can tell the difference.

1. Huss Valley Roblox Fandom wiki, Knife Skins and the 38 knife pages Reported

   Knife names, how each one is obtained, and the crate drop chances the calculator runs on. Community-entered, CC BY-SA 3.0, no source cited on the pages themselves.

   Read 12 Oct 2026

2. Huss Valley Roblox Fandom wiki, Crates Reported

   That crates are the main way to get knife skins and that all crates are limited. No crate price and no removal date.

   Read 12 Oct 2026

3. Roblox paid random items policy Official

   That a paid random item has to show every outcome and its numeric probability before purchase — which is why the in-game crate screen outranks any wiki table.

   Read 12 Oct 2026

4. hussvalley.top, round and controls guide Reported

   Three crossings to win, the reported PC bindings, the down-and-revive loop, and that Gems buy abilities while Coins buy consumables.

   Read 12 Oct 2026

5. Roblox game-passes API, universe 10764627709 Official

   Game pass names, Robux prices, for-sale state and creation dates, including the two passes that are not for sale.

   Read 12 Oct 2026

Not tested on this page: Crossing times other than The Valley on foot, top-speed crossings, and Gems, Coins and XP per match.